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#335 | 巴以冲突的内外交困：以色列面临战争与外交的平衡挑战
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这篇报道指出，以色列在加沙地带的合法性正逐渐减弱。目前，中东地区正处于战争的边缘，以色列面临来自黎巴嫩的威胁以及来自伊朗支持的民兵组织的袭击。然而，以色列政府在如何开展战争方面存在内部争议，一方支持快速打击，另一方希望采取更温和、持久的战略。此外，以色列还面临来自盟友的压力，要求调整计划并减少平民伤亡。这场战争对以色列来说具有重大风险，但也为其带来了挑战和机遇。
On israel’s northern border with Lebanon, in the Upper Galilee, the air is heavy with acrid smoke as shelling ignites forest fires. Civilians have been evacuated and soldiers in helmets guard the junctions. Every hour or so, Hizbullah missiles explode inside the border, and Israel launches a counter-barrage aimed at the Iran-backed militia. This is a country poised for war. To the east Israel is bombing Syrian airfields thought to be used to ship arms to militants. To the west an American aircraft-carrier strike group floats in the Mediterranean, with a second on its way to the region, to try to deter Iran and its proxies. In the south a vast Israeli invasion force awaits an order to enter the battle grounds of Gaza.以色列与黎巴嫩边北部境接壤的上加利利地区烟雾弥漫，炮击引发了森林火灾。平民已被疏散，头戴头盔的士兵守卫交汇点。每隔一个小时左右，真主党的导弹在边境内爆炸，以色列则发动还击，打击这支得到伊朗支持的民兵组织。这俩国家正处于战争的边缘。向东，以色列正在轰炸似乎是向激进分子运送武器的叙利亚空军基地。向西，一支美国航母战斗群在地中海漂浮，第二支航母即将赶往该地区，试图震慑伊朗及其代理人。向南，一支庞大的以色列入侵部队正在等待进入加沙战场的命令。
Fifteen days after Hamas’s attack on Israel, that ground invasion has yet to begin. One reason for the delay is a desperate flurry of last-minute diplomacy. On October 20th two American-Israeli hostages were released by Hamas after talks brokered by Qatar. A day later an international conference in Cairo called for a cease-fire. A limited amount of aid is now flowing across from Egypt into Gaza and negotiations over more hostage releases are ongoing.在哈马斯对以色列发动袭击的15天后，地面入侵行动仍未开始。延迟的原因之一是一系列令人绝望的外交活动。10月20日，经由卡塔尔斡旋的谈判后，哈马斯释放了两名美国-以色列人质。一天后，开罗举行了一次国际会议，呼吁停火。现在，一部分援助物资从埃及流入加沙，关于更多人质释放的谈判仍在进行中。
The delay also reflects debate within Israel’s government about what kind of war it wants to fight: hard and fast, or patient and long? On October 19th field commanders finalised operational plans and the war cabinet met in Tel Aviv. After seven hours, the meeting chaired by Binyamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, ended inconclusively. Strained relationships and stress may be impeding decision making. The impetuous defence minister, Yoav Gallant, supported by some generals, wants to rush into another short, sharp war. Mr Netanyahu is chronically hesitant.这种延迟还反映出以政府内部对于希望进行何种类型战争存在争论：是迅猛而短暂的战争，还是耐心而长久的战争？10月19日，野战指挥官们完成了行动计划，战争内阁在特拉维夫召开会议。以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡主持的会议经过了七个小时的讨论，最终仍未取得一致意见。紧张的关系和压力可能妨碍了决策。急躁的国防部长约阿夫·加兰特得到一些将军的支持，希望迅速发动另一场短暂而激烈的战争。内塔尼亚胡一向犹豫不决。
But Israel is also under pressure from allies to recalibrate its plans and move away from its customary approach of rapid shock-and-awe offensives to a more restrained, longer campaign. On October 22nd Antony Blinken, the secretary of state, said us military advice to Israel was “focused on both how they do it and how best to achieve the results that they seek” while acknowledging that “Hamas is an active threat and that needs to be dealt with”.以色列面临来自盟友的压力，要求重新调整计划，摒弃通常的迅猛打击战略，转而采取更克制、更长久的战役。10月22日，美国国务卿安东尼·布林肯表示，美国向以色列提供的军事建议“关注他们如何做以及如何最好地实现所追求的结果”，同时承认“哈马斯是一个活跃的威胁，需要加以应对”。
Every Israeli war is fought watching the clock, as international condemnation grows and eventually America qualifies its support. In 1973 America urged a ceasefire ending the Yom Kippur War despite Israeli forces being on the advance. In 2006, it imposed a ceasefire before Israel could achieve its objectives in Lebanon. As one Israeli official puts it, “our window of international legitimacy is limited.” That usually points towards using maximum force to inflict punitive damage and re-establish deterrence fast before the window closes. This time may be different.每一次以色列的战争都是在时间压力下进行的，随着国际谴责的增加，最终美国对其支持做出限制。1973年，尽管以色列军队正在取得进展，美国敦促停火结束了赎罪日战争。2006年，在以色列能够实现其在黎巴嫩的目标之前，美国强制实施了停火。正如一位以色列官员所说，“我们的国际合法性窗口是有限的。”这通常意味着在窗口关闭之前，使用最大的武力造成惩罚性的破坏，重新确立威慑力。但这一次情况可能不同。
Israel’s stated aim is expansive: to destroy Hamas’s capabilities and remove it from power. That means laboriously clearing a 500km labyrinth of tunnels and house-to-house fighting. One general involved says “to completely eliminate Hamas’ capabilities to launch rockets you must eliminate the rocket operators”, who often fire from civilian buildings. In 2016-17 it took Iraq, with help from a coalition, nine months to destroy Daesh in Mosul, a city of 2m people before it was occupied.以色列的宣称目标是宏大的：摧毁哈马斯并将其赶下台。这意味着要费时费力地清除一条长达500公里的地道迷宫，并进行逐户战斗。一位参与战斗的将军表示，“要完全消除哈马斯发射火箭的能力，必须消灭火箭操作员”，而这些操作员经常从平民建筑物中开火。2016年至2017年，伊拉克在联军的帮助下花了九个月时间才摧毁了摩苏尔的伊斯兰国，摩苏尔在被占领之前是一个有200万人口的城市。
America also appears to want a longer, more restrained campaign. Optically Mr Biden could not be more supportive of Mr Netanyahu’s government. “I am a Zionist,” he told the war cabinet on his visit to Israel. The president is asking Congress for a $105bn emergency funding bill that includes $14bn for Israel, and America continues to build up forces in the region: on October 21st it said it would deploy additional Patriot air-defence battalions and a thaad anti-ballistic missile battery. Mr Biden is also giving diplomatic cover: on October 18th America vetoed a draft un Security Council resolution calling for a “humanitarian pause” and on October 21st it proposed one asserting Israel’s right to self defence. Nonetheless the White House is also clear it expects Israel to comply with the laws of war and to minimise civilian casualties. Mr Biden has urged Israel that “while you feel that rage, don’t be consumed by it”.美国似乎也希望进行一场更长、更克制的战役。在形象上，拜登先生对内塔尼亚胡政府的支持无比坚定。他在访问以色列时对战争内阁表示：“我是一个犹太复国主义者。”总统正在向国会请求一项1050亿美元的紧急资金法案，其中包括140亿美元用于支持以色列，美国还在继续在该地区增兵：10月21日，美国表示将部署额外的“爱国者”防空导弹营和“萨德”反弹道导弹系统。拜登还给予了外交支持：10月18日，美国否决了一项要求“人道停火”的联合国安理会草案，10月21日，美国提出了一项声明，肯定了以色列的自卫权。尽管如此，白宫也明确表示，它希望以色列遵守战争法，并尽量减少对平民的伤害。拜登敦促以色列：“在你感到愤怒的同时，不要被愤怒所吞噬。”
Finally Israel’s war cabinet may be weighing the response in the Arab world. A very rapid further rise in civilian casualties in Gaza would be more likely to trigger a response from Hizbullah and Iran, and the second front that Israel dreads. On October 19th, the launch of missiles towards Israel from Iranian-backed militants in Yemen served as a reminder of the explosive potential of Iran’s various proxies (they were intercepted by the American navy). As importantly it would lead to a deeper estrangement with the Arab states with whom Israel had improving ties before the attacks on October 7th, including the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Saudi has implicitly kept normalisation of diplomatic relations on the table.最后，以色列的战争内阁可能正在权衡对阿拉伯世界的回应。如果加沙的平民伤亡迅速上升，更有可能引发真主党和伊朗的回应，以及以色列最担心的第二战线。10月19日，伊朗支持的背叛组织向以色列发射导弹，提醒了人们伊朗各种代理人的爆炸潜力（这些导弹被美国海军拦截）。更重要的是，这将导致以色列与在10月7日的袭击之前与之改善关系的阿拉伯国家之间的深度疏远，包括阿拉伯联合酋长国和沙特阿拉伯。沙特暗示保持外交关系正常化的可能性。
A more controlled, longer campaign would still carry huge risks for Israel. Its forces could get bogged down: in 2014 soldiers got trapped in Shujaiyeh in northern Gaza and had to be protected by heavy artillery. Eado Hecht, an Israeli military analyst, has warned of 40,000 fighters from Hamas and other groups who will “conduct a deadly game of hide-and-seek with our forces for a long time”. Prolonged mobilisation will hurt the economy: the reservists are a large proportion of the workforce, as are hundreds of thousands of Israelis who have had to evacuate the areas near Gaza and along the border with Lebanon. After long periods of national mobilisation in the wars of 1973 and 1982, the country suffered prolonged recession.一个更受控制、更长时间的战役对以色列仍然存在巨大风险。以色列军队可能会陷入泥潭：2014年，士兵们曾被困在加沙北部的舒贾耶区，不得不依靠重炮保护。以色列军事分析师埃多·海赫特警告称，哈马斯和其他组织的4万名战斗人员将“与我们的部队进行长时间的致命躲猫猫游戏”。长时间的动员将对经济造成伤害：预备役人员占劳动力的很大比例，数十万以色列人不得不撤离加沙附近和与黎巴嫩边境沿线的地区。在1973年和1982年的战争中，国家长时间的动员导致了长期的经济衰退。
The best way to try to extend Israel’s “window of legitimacy” with its Western and Arab allies would be to signal that it is prepared to participate in some kind of plan for the Palestinians if it succeeds in removing Hamas. On October 21st Mr Biden tweeted “we cannot give up on a two-state solution”. Gaza would need a credible Palestinian administration, with the backing of Arab nations, in order to rebuild and ensure Hamas does not return. Here Mr Netanyahu, who is fighting for his political survival, is doing his country no favours by denying, as he did on October 21st, that the preferred long-term solution for Gaza is to re-establish the control of the Palestinian Authority (pa), which rules in the West Bank and has condemned the Hamas attacks. Mr Netanyahu is the architect of the two-decade strategy of ignoring and isolating the Palestinians, and dividing them between Hamas-ruled Gaza and the West Bank run by a weakened pa. That failed approach is one of the reasons Israel is about to go to war against Hamas. Israel’s lack of a plan for the Palestinians could also now compromise its ability to sustain a long campaign.为了延长以色列与其西方和阿拉伯盟友的“合法性窗口”，最好的方式是发出信号，表明如果成功清除哈马斯，以色列愿意参与某种形式的巴勒斯坦计划。拜登先生在10月21日发推文表示：“我们不能放弃两国解决方案”。加沙需要一个可信的巴勒斯坦行政机构，并得到阿拉伯国家的支持，以便重建并确保哈马斯不会回归。对于尼坦雅胡来说，他正在为自己的政治生存而战，他在10月21日否认了加沙的首选长期解决方案是恢复巴勒斯坦权力机构（巴）对其控制的说法，巴勒斯坦权力机构在西岸统治，并谴责了哈马斯的袭击事件。尼坦雅胡是20年来无视和孤立巴勒斯坦人并将他们分裂成哈马斯统治的加沙和巴勒斯坦权力机构控制的西岸的策略的设计者。这种失败的方法之一是以色列即将对哈马斯发动战争的原因之一。以色列对巴勒斯坦人缺乏计划，现在也可能损害其维持长期战役的能力。
来源: The Economist
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